China is caught between a lump of coal and a nuclear reactor. Over the past decade, it has favoured the coal. More recently, nuclear power has been shunned in the aftermath of Japan’s 2011 Fukushima earthquake. But the reactor’s pull is increasing.
中国正在煤炭与核反应堆之间摇摆不定。过去十年，中国更偏爱煤炭一些。更近一段时间内，在日本2011年福岛(Fukushima)地震的影响下，中国一直在尽量避免核电。然而，核反应堆的吸引力正在逐渐加大。
Not before time: China needs to cut pollution. The country is responsible for 30 per cent of the world’s CO2 output. Last year, China’s emissions per capita overtook those of the EU for the first time. This is untenable: pollution is an increasing cause of social unrest as people worry about the impact on health. So this month, China – with the US – outlined new emissions targets. Balancing these against its energy needs, China aims to source one-fifth of its power from non-fossil fuels by 2030 – the year slated for peak emissions.
核电的发展恰逢其时：中国亟需降低环境污染。中国的二氧化碳排放量已占到全球的30%，去年中国人均碳排放量首次超过欧盟(EU)。这种局面是无法持续的：由于人们担心身体健康受到的影响，污染正日益成为社会动荡的原因。因此，就在这个月，中国与美国一道，宣布了新的减排目标。根据这一目标，中国目标在2030年以前令碳排放量开始回落。为了在减排与能源需求间取得平衡，中国力图在2030年前将五分之一的电力来源转为非化石燃料。
To help it reach these goals, China’s nuclear capacity is expected to hit 58GW in 6 years, more than trebling from this year. At that level, 2020 nuclear generation will still equate only to a mere 5 per cent of China’s total 2013 capacity – and only just over half of the US’s current nuclear capacity.
为帮助实现以上目标，中国核能发电量预计在6年内达到58吉瓦，超过今年的三倍。以这一水平计算，2020年中国核能发电量仍然只相当于2013年中国总发电量的5%。而且，这一发电量也只相当于美国目前核能发电量的一半。
With so much room for growth, it is good timing for China’s largest nuclear power company, China Guangdong Nuclear, to come to market. CGN (which will be the world’s first listed pure-play nuclear generation company) manages almost two-thirds of China’s current 18GW. It has asset purchases lined up, more than doubling capacity by 2019. Parent company China General Nuclear Power Corp, a state owned enterprise, will sell about one-fifth of the enlarged company on the Hong Kong stock exchange, raising up to $3.6bn to fund asset purchases and repay debt. With net debt of more than $12bn before the listing, any repayment will barely dent the near-200 per cent net debt to equity ratio. Still, this is comparable with China-listed peers, if not US ones.
面临如此巨大的成长空间，中国最大核电企业——中国广东核电集团(China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group)的上市正是时候。中广核将成为全球首家以核电为单一业务的上市公司。目前，在中国18吉瓦核能发电量中，该公司占了将近三分之二。此外，该公司还准备开展一系列资产并购活动，在2019年以前将发电量提高一倍以上。该公司的母公司、国有企业中国广核集团(China General Nuclear Power Group)将在企业规模扩大后，在香港股市出售大约五分之一的股份，筹集总计36亿美元，用于资产并购和偿还债务。不过该公司上市前的净债务超过120亿美元，任何偿还行为都很难对接近200%的净负债率产生很大影响。然而，如果不和美国上市企业相比，这种状况在中国同类上市企业中还是可以接受的。
The story relies on continued state support for tariff pricing, expansion and, given tax rebates, profitability. And priced at up to 16 times 2015 forecasts, it does not come especially cheaply. But, with Christmas coming, it beats a lump of coal in a festive stocking.
中广核的优势在于，中国政府会继续在关税定价、企业扩张及考虑退税情况下的盈利能力等方面予以支持。该公司股价定为2015年预期盈利的16倍，这一价格并不是特别便宜。不过，在这个圣诞节来临之际，它在人们节日储备中的吸引力还是超过了一众火电股。
中国正在煤炭与核反应堆之间摇摆不定。过去十年，中国更偏爱煤炭一些。更近一段时间内，在日本2011年福岛(Fukushima)地震的影响下，中国一直在尽量避免核电。然而，核反应堆的吸引力正在逐渐加大。
Not before time: China needs to cut pollution. The country is responsible for 30 per cent of the world’s CO2 output. Last year, China’s emissions per capita overtook those of the EU for the first time. This is untenable: pollution is an increasing cause of social unrest as people worry about the impact on health. So this month, China – with the US – outlined new emissions targets. Balancing these against its energy needs, China aims to source one-fifth of its power from non-fossil fuels by 2030 – the year slated for peak emissions.
核电的发展恰逢其时：中国亟需降低环境污染。中国的二氧化碳排放量已占到全球的30%，去年中国人均碳排放量首次超过欧盟(EU)。这种局面是无法持续的：由于人们担心身体健康受到的影响，污染正日益成为社会动荡的原因。因此，就在这个月，中国与美国一道，宣布了新的减排目标。根据这一目标，中国目标在2030年以前令碳排放量开始回落。为了在减排与能源需求间取得平衡，中国力图在2030年前将五分之一的电力来源转为非化石燃料。
To help it reach these goals, China’s nuclear capacity is expected to hit 58GW in 6 years, more than trebling from this year. At that level, 2020 nuclear generation will still equate only to a mere 5 per cent of China’s total 2013 capacity – and only just over half of the US’s current nuclear capacity.
为帮助实现以上目标，中国核能发电量预计在6年内达到58吉瓦，超过今年的三倍。以这一水平计算，2020年中国核能发电量仍然只相当于2013年中国总发电量的5%。而且，这一发电量也只相当于美国目前核能发电量的一半。
With so much room for growth, it is good timing for China’s largest nuclear power company, China Guangdong Nuclear, to come to market. CGN (which will be the world’s first listed pure-play nuclear generation company) manages almost two-thirds of China’s current 18GW. It has asset purchases lined up, more than doubling capacity by 2019. Parent company China General Nuclear Power Corp, a state owned enterprise, will sell about one-fifth of the enlarged company on the Hong Kong stock exchange, raising up to $3.6bn to fund asset purchases and repay debt. With net debt of more than $12bn before the listing, any repayment will barely dent the near-200 per cent net debt to equity ratio. Still, this is comparable with China-listed peers, if not US ones.
面临如此巨大的成长空间，中国最大核电企业——中国广东核电集团(China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group)的上市正是时候。中广核将成为全球首家以核电为单一业务的上市公司。目前，在中国18吉瓦核能发电量中，该公司占了将近三分之二。此外，该公司还准备开展一系列资产并购活动，在2019年以前将发电量提高一倍以上。该公司的母公司、国有企业中国广核集团(China General Nuclear Power Group)将在企业规模扩大后，在香港股市出售大约五分之一的股份，筹集总计36亿美元，用于资产并购和偿还债务。不过该公司上市前的净债务超过120亿美元，任何偿还行为都很难对接近200%的净负债率产生很大影响。然而，如果不和美国上市企业相比，这种状况在中国同类上市企业中还是可以接受的。
The story relies on continued state support for tariff pricing, expansion and, given tax rebates, profitability. And priced at up to 16 times 2015 forecasts, it does not come especially cheaply. But, with Christmas coming, it beats a lump of coal in a festive stocking.
中广核的优势在于，中国政府会继续在关税定价、企业扩张及考虑退税情况下的盈利能力等方面予以支持。该公司股价定为2015年预期盈利的16倍，这一价格并不是特别便宜。不过，在这个圣诞节来临之际，它在人们节日储备中的吸引力还是超过了一众火电股。
