99B INVEST 150913 1200 17.0N 87.0E IO 15 NA

北印度洋风季开始啦？

在孟加拉湾的哪里

随着季风的逐渐退去，可以期待北印出几个货。夏季某Komen真的要靠运气。

貌似
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 15-09-2015
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
15TH SEPTEMBER 2015 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 15TH SEPTEMBER 2015.
BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING NORTHWEST
BAY OF BENGAL INTENSIFIED INTO WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA NOW
LIES OVER WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF SOUTH
ODISHA AND NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LIE OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL AND NEIGHBOURHOOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WELL MARKED LOW
PRESSURE AREA.
BROKEN LOW / MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER REST BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 10.5 DEG N TO
20.5 DEG N,
ANDAMAN SEA, TENASSERIM COAST AND GULF OF MARTABAN.
PROBABILITY OF CY

APPROXIMATELY 160NM EAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). EVIDENT IN A 141500Z ASCAT PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES
EQUATORWARD ON AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE THE LLCC MOVES OVER LAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. BECAUSE
THE LLCC IS WEAK AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS LESS THAN OPTIMAL, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0N
86.1E, IS MOVING INLAND AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.